Final Nomination Predictions for The 89th Annual Academy Awards

Tomorrow morning they will announce the nominees for the 89th Annual Academy Awards. It’s been a crazy season and there are still a lot of question marks that we can only guess at right now, but that just makes it more exciting!!

Here are my predictions:

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BEST PICTURE

PREDICTIONS

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Arrival

Lion

Hidden Figures

Hell or High Water

Hacksaw Ridge

Fences

Nocturnal Animals

SPOILERS

Silence

Deadpool

Florence Foster Jenkins

Ive listed these in order of most likely to least likely to receive a nomination. I think there will probably only be 7 or 8 actual nominees in this category. It can range anywhere between 5 and 10. My gut says Fences and Nocturnal Animals miss the cut. Fences is strong with actors (which is a large voting branch) but not strong at all with any of the other branches so far. And Animals has proved incredibly devisive with audiences. Deadpool has proved an extremely strong contender with the guilds but can it overcome the fact that it’s a comic book movie? Probably not. It’ll be interesting also to see how much the Academy loves Stephen Frears and Florence Foster Jenkins. They’ve gone crazy for his previous films.

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BEST DIRECTOR

PREDICTIONS

Damien Chazelle- La La Land

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water

SPOILERS

Garth Davis – Lion

Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

The top 4 are basically locked up. Smart money would say go with Gibson or Davis because they’ve had better momentum and have precious other nominations this season. The director’s branch tends to always throw a curveball though ( Lenny Abrahamson from Room last year) so I’m going with Mackenzie because he just feels like the crazy thing they’d do. This is me going outside of the box.

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BEST ACTOR

PREDICTIONS

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

Denzel Washington – Fences

Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

SPOILERS

Joel Edgerton – Loving

Tom Hanks – Sully

This category was fluxating a lot at the beginning of the season and now pretty much everybody has had this same list. Unless there is a big shock in the morning, these will be the nominees.

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BEST ACTRESS

PREDICTIONS

Emma Stone – La La Land

Natalie Portman – Jackie

Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Amy Adams – Arrival

Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins 

SPOILERS

Annette Bening – 20th Century Women

Ruth Negga – Loving

Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train

This will be one of the toughest categories of the morning. It’s such a crowded field and a couple very deserving people will be left off this list. After August Osage County, I never bet against Meryl Streep getting a nom. Especially after her Globes speech. The Academy loves Amy and with this nomination she’ll be tied for the actress with the most nominations and no wins. Poor Annette Bening… earlier in the year it looked like this was going to be her overdue Oscar, but the film has no momentum going for it. She may have a chance to sneak in, but I can’t imagine her bumping any of those five.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

PREDICTIONS

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Dev Patel – Lion

Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea 

SPOILERS

Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals

The question mark here is: Can Aaron Taylor-Johnson win the Golden Globe and get a BAFTA nomination but not get nominated here. I say yes. Nocturnal Animals is really splitting with audiences and he is also competing against his co-star Michael Shannon. I’m putting Lucas Hedges in the five because he got the SAG nomination and he’s in a sure- thing Best Picture nominee.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

PREDICTIONS

Viola Davis – Fences

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Nicole Kidman – Lion

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

SPOILERS

Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures

Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women

This group is starting to look pretty locked up. Octavia Spencer is the most fragile one here. I would love to see Janelle Monae in the five instead of Spencer, but the momentum is behind Octavia.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

PREDICTIONS

Manchester by the Sea

La La Land

Hell or High Water

The Lobster

Zootopia

SPOILERS

Captain Fantastic

Jackie

The first three are basically locks but the last two are up in the air. The usually love their art house movies in the writers branch and The Lobster has been campaigning hard to get this nomination. Writing is also where they tend to reward animated movies outside of the Animated Feature category. Jackie is a devisive film and Captain Fantastic plays into the same group as The Lobster. It really is anybody’s guess.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

PREDICTIONS

Moonlight

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Nocturnal Animals

SPOILERS

Hacksaw Ridge

Lion

Again, the first three are locked up pretty much.  I’m choosing Hidden Figures because of its late surge in the awards race and the writers aren’t afraid to nominate a popular well-written movie (aka Straight Outta Compton.) I’m going on a branch for Nocturnal Animals only because it’s a unique script and it’s about a writer- they love movies about themselves.

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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

PREDICTIONS

Zootopia

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

SPOILERS

Finding Dory

Sing

This is an incredibly strong category this year with a ton of contenders. I have a feeling they will go with more art house type fair like Zucchini (which also may be in the foreign language category) and The Red Turtle over blockbusters like Finding Dory which weren’t as well received.

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

PREDICTIONS

Toni Erdmann

The Salesman

A Man Called Ove

Land of Mine

My Life as a Zucchini

SPOILERS

The King’s Choice

Barring any major surprises, these will be your five nominees.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

PREDICTIONS

OJ: Made in America

13th

I Am Not Your Negro

Cameraperson

Fire at Sea

SPOILERS

Weiner

Weiner is the popular one that you would think would be in the list, but I think after the whole Hillary email scandal many voters may be turned off by the subject. Fire at Sea is about the refugee crisis and has a much more urgent feel.

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

PREDICTIONS

La La Land

Moonlight

Arrival

Lion

Silence

SPOILERS

Jackie

Nocturnal Animals

The first three are looking like locks. Lion is a pretty close lock too. The cinematography is the one thing that really sticks out about Silence, so I think it gets in.

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Jackie

La La Land

Fantastic Beast and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Hidden Figures

SPOILERS

Allied

Nocturnal Animals

The Dressmaker

The costume branch loves it’s period pieces, but most of the time it’s biggest showy dresses and such- so I could see an upset here from The Dressmaker.

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

PREDICTIONS

La La Land

Jackie

Arrival

Dr. Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

SPOILERS

Hidden Figures

Silence

 

I’m going out on a limb for Dr. Strange but the production design was just as important as the visual effects in that film.

 

BEST FILM EDITING

PREDICTIONS

La La Land

Moonlight

Arrival

OJ : Made in America

Manchester by the Sea

SPOILERS

Hacksaw Ridge

On a limb here, but the editing branch has been known to go for Documentaries before and OJ is eight hours of complied footage which is truly an editing accomplishment. If they don’t go for it, they’ll go for fast-paced war movies like Hacksaw Ridge.

 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

PREDICTIONS

Florence Foster Jenkins

Deadpool

A Man Called Ove

SPOILERS

Star Trek Beyond

 

They went with the team behind A Man Called Ove‘s film last year so they’re not afraid of foreign language films in this category. And this time the film will probably be nominated in the Foreign Language category as well.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

PREDICTIONS

La La Land

Moonlight

Lion

Jackie

The BFG

SPOILERS

Hidden Figures

Nocturnal Animals

 

The first three nominees are basically locks. Jackie divides people but, behind Portman’s performance, the score is what people remember the most. The BFG was written by John Williams- you NEVER bet against a John William’s score!

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

PREDICTIONS

“City of Stars” – La La Land

“Audition” – La La Land

“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” – Trolls

“Drive It Like You Stole It” – Sing Street

SPOILERS

“Runnin'” – Hidden Figures

 

Big question here: Can La La Land get two nominations in this category? It needs to if it’s going to tie the record for most nominations which many are predicting it to. I think it probably will get both. My big out-on-a-limb guess is the song from Sing Street. Music branch members are given a song and asked to judge it based on its use in the film which is why a lot of songs played over credits don’t get a nomination. Sing Street is also a new musical. Will they respond to that?

 

BEST SOUND MIXING

PREDICTIONS

La La Land

Hacksaw Ridge

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Arrival

Doctor Strange

SPOILERS

Deepwater Horizon

The Jungle Book

 

I at least know the difference between editing and mixing. However, I’m just going to follow the Guild’s lead on this one and look at the Cinema Audio Society’s nominees. However, I’m switching out Sully for Arrival.

 

BEST SOUND EDITING

PREDICTIONS

La La Land

Hacksaw Ridge

Deepwater Horizon

Fantastic Beast and Where To Find Them

Arrival

SPOILERS

The Jungle Book

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

In this category, sometimes your best bet is to go with the films with the MOST sound. Editing is all about creating the sounds heard in the film. Bigger is better.

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

PREDICTIONS

The Jungle Book

Doctor Strange

Arrival

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

SPOILERS

The BFG

 

Not a lot of competition in this category. But who knows, maybe there will be a shocker?

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

PREDICTIONS

Piper

Pearl

Inner Workings

The Head Vanishes

Borrowed Time

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

PREDICTIONS

The Way of Tea

Nocturne in Black

The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy

Timecode

Sing

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

PREDICTIONS

Joe’s Violin

Extremis

The White Helmets

4.1 Miles

The Mute’s House

 

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