The 73rd Annual Golden Globe Awards: Analysis

The Golden Globes were Sunday and let’s just say the results were interesting. The HFPA always tends to do things their own way when it comes to the Globes as opposed to the other award shows during the season. This year, however, without any clear frontrunners in many categories…the HFPA decided to get really crazy with their votes.

The Globe nominations were announced the day after the SAG Awards and seemed to make far more sense than the Actor’s Guild nominations. But HFPA seemed to have tricked us all thinking we were going to have an easy time predicting their show. The HFPA, I should add, is a group of 82 journalist based in LA for foreign outlets. There is only one voter out of those 82 who is also a member of the Academy. So saying that Globes has much weight on Oscar voters would be a lie. Especially since the nomination ballots for the Academy Awards were due on Friday, before the Globes aired.

That being said, lets jump in to some of the surprises of the night and talk about what impact that may have on the Oscar race…

***We’re just going to pretend my TV predictions didn’t happen, ok?***

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The Revenant

This category was supposed to be a lock. Every pundit on Gold Derby even thought that Spotlight had Best Picture in the bag. So what happened?

Who knows? My best guess is that the HFPA were trying to make up for the fact that they snubbed Innaritu and Birdman last year when everybody thought it was a lock for Best Picture. As we all know The Grand Budapest Hotel ended up winning Best picture (Musical/Comedy) last year over Birdman and Richard Linklater won Best Director for Boyhood. And then, Birdman made a surprising last minute comeback in the race and won the PGA award, the SAG ensemble award, the DGA award, and ultimately the Oscars for Best Picture and Best Director. Seeing as the HFPA was way off then, it looks like this year’s prizes were redemption.

But this is the HFPA were talking about, and let’s get real, journalists are much more easily persuaded than the branches of the Academy when it comes to parties and whatnot… Maybe The Revenant just played a better campaign than Spotlight.

OR…maybe they simply just liked The Revenant better.

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Leo and Brie

As predicted, the frontrunners for the Best Actor and Actress Oscars won their categories and our moving forward in their quest for gold. No surprises here.

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The Martian and Matt Damon

This was a big win for The Martian and Matt Damon on Sunday. The Martian was critically-praised and was Number #1 at the Box Office for 4 weeks but the steam was wearing off and it look as though it’s prospects may have started to lag.

Especially with the arrival and recent swell of support for comedy, The Big Short. Many people, including myself, thought that there would be much more backlash for the HFPA placing The Martian in the comedy categories, but as we saw Sunday… nope. The Martian’s Best Picture nomination for Oscar is all but guaranteed… Matt Damon, however, would have been in very serious trouble had he not won on Saturday night. There are one or two spots that keep changing on the Best Actor list and when Matt Damon was snubbed by SAG, things did not look good for him. He starting to comfortably fit into that 4th spot and is feeling a safer bet now… But I’d hardly call him a lock.

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Jennifer Lawrence… Jennifer Lawrence… Jennifer Lawrence

It’s getting a little bit ridiculous at this point. I love Jennifer Lawrence as much as the next guy, and this was a really weak category all around… But does she need 3 Golden Globes??? They literally will give her pretty much any award now just to get her at their show. This helps her Oscar chances, but she is just barely holding on. The Best Actress category is an embarrassment of riches this year and some very deserving people are going to be left off that Oscar nomination list. Did Lawrence give one of the Top 5 Actress performances of the year in a mediocre movie? Doubtful…

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Supporting Categories

These categories are still wide open for the Oscars and it’s anybody’s to lose. But winning Globes definitely didn’t hurt Kate and Sylvester on Sunday. The biggest questions right now are who even gets the five nominations on Thursday morning. These two are basically locked in there, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for wins at Oscars. The standing ovation for Sylvester might be a good sign for Oscars, but I can’t imagine a scenario where Kate wins (unfortunately.) The category is just too crowded.

What helped Kate on Sunday was the fact that both Vikander and Mara were placed in the Lead category, but I don’t think anybody was predicting a Winslet win. With a screenplay win for Sorkin, it was pretty clear that the HFPA liked Steve Jobs more than most precursor awards.

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To sum it up: You have to take all Globe wins with a grain of salt, it’s a very different voting group. However, behind the Oscars, they’re the most viewed award show and that can have an effect on what voters for other shows are watching. All these winners definitely got a boost on Sunday night. Does that mean they’re destined for Oscar gold…

Maybe?

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